Reshaping a Balanced Context of Space Arms Control
From Sustainability and Threat to Stability and Deterrence
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61199/9k10-634pKeywords:
space sustainability, space stability, space threat, space deterrence, DA ASAT test, PAROSAbstract
In the discussions on space arms control, the terms of space sustainability and space threat are frequently mentioned. Space sustainability has been taken as the objective for space arms control negotiation, and the recognition of space threat is always deemed as the prerequisite for such rules-making processes. By contrast, space stability and space deterrence are seldom mentioned on purpose or as an omission. However, the recognition and determination of these two terms will be critical and even decisive for space security rules-making. When addressing all kinds of counter-space capabilities in the process of Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS), it is always associated with the concept of space threat, in particular kinetic weapons, for instance Anti-Satellite (ASAT) tests. Subsequently, this brings about discussions on how to limit or ban such threats. It cannot be denied that these capabilities, when being defined as threats, are also the main sources of strategic or tactical deterrence. An arms control strategy involves interpreting an adversary’s deterrence as a threat to the international community, thereby weakening or even prohibiting the adversary’s deterrence through arms control initiatives. Space deterrence does not solely, or even necessarily, aim to deter space operations; rather, it may combine with nuclear, conventional, and informational deterrence capabilities to shape an adversary’s overall perceptions and behavior. The complex interactions among space threats, deterrence, and threat perception shape international strategic dynamics, exerting significant influence on the international security landscape and policymaking. Therefore, it is imperative to foster a shared and balanced understanding of these interrelated concepts among states, so as to minimize the risk of misperception and miscalculation and thereby develop more balanced and practical rules for space arms control.
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